Death in the Vatican

On April 21, 2025, Pope Francis, 88, died of a stroke and irreversible heart failure in Vatican City. Though the pontiff had returned to work after a five-week hospital stay, he was still recovering from double pneumonia and related health complications. The day before his death, he made his last public appearance at St. Peter’s Basilica, offering a final Easter address (delivered by his aide, Archbishop Diego Ravelli) for the world’s 1.3 billion Catholics.

Argentine-born Jorge Mario Bergoglio, the 266th leader of the Catholic Church, was the first Jesuit pope, the first from the Americas, and the first to take the name “Francis” after Francis of Assisi, known for his poverty and humility. Controversial shifts on several levels marked his twelve-year papacy:

Francis shook the Catholic world with a whirlwind of change: in symbols (wearing a silvery metal cross), in status (living in a simple apartment at Santa Marta), in language (speaking as a country priest), in posture (approachable by all), in tone (relational and warm), in style (undiplomatic and direct), in pastoral openness (blessing homosexual people and admitting divorced people at the Eucharist). (Leonardo de Chirico, “Francis (1936-2025), the Pope Who Made the Roman Church More ‘Catholic,’” April 21, 2025, thegospelcoalition.org.)

He pushed through reforms addressing Vatican finances and climate change and undertook efforts to tackle clerical abuse and promote social justice. He made overt political statements, for instance, claiming Western nations had provoked the war in Ukraine and, more recently, in February, criticizing U.S. President Donald Trump over the latter’s intention to begin mass deportations of illegal immigrants.

While the church hierarchy will close ranks and mourn the death of its leader, many of them, both conservative and liberal, will be secretly relieved by Francis’ passing. Although twelve years have passed since he succeeded Benedict XVI, the tension between these opposing viewpoints, doctrinal discipline versus pastoral reform, remains.

Since his election, conservative cardinals have been frustrated by Francis’ fluid approach to Catholic doctrine. He frequently expressed frustration with how traditional teachings and long-established internal procedures and organization patterns impeded his attempts to make significant, more “people-friendly” changes within the Church. He found theological discussions tedious, preferring “walking together, praying together, and working together” to create ecumenical consensus as a step toward progressive change. For instance, his 2020 encyclical, All Brothers, asserts that the Roman Catholic Church welcomes all, not on the basis of a mutual faith in Christ, but on the world’s shared humanity.

Conversely, Vatican liberals cheered Francis’ election, hoping, as they saw it, to move the Roman Church out of the Dark Ages and into the modern, humanistic, global world. They elected him because they thought that, by his winning, humble personality, their cause could make real strides in making Catholicism modern—that he would finish the work of the Second Vatican Council (1962-65). Yet, in their minds, Francis accomplished little of substance on their key issues: LGBTQ+, divorce and remarriage, ordination of women, priestly celibacy, contraception, and the environment. When the cardinals gather to elect a new pope, liberals among them will seek a leader to enshrine their progressive ideals as the new Catholic Church tradition.

The Roman Church now enters the period of Sede Vacante, the Vacant Seat, during which Irish American Cardinal Kevin Farrell will act as the acting head of the Vatican until a new pontiff is elected. After about two weeks, cardinals under the age of 80 will convene to elect a new pope through a secret ballot conclave.

As expected, speculation has already begun on who will emerge as the next pontiff. Some believe that since Francis appointed about half of the qualified electors, someone in his progressive image will succeed to the Holy See. Others predict a long, contentious election during which conservative electors will stand firm until one of their own or a right-leaning compromise candidate arises.

One such compromise candidate might be Cardinal Pietro Parolin, 70, the Vatican’s Secretary of State, who is seen as a political moderate. He has been involved in the Vatican’s administration for about forty years. However, conservatives might see him as too closely tied to Francis’ regime. Cardinal Mario Grech, 69, of Malta, a traditionalist who has moderated his views under Francis, might be acceptable as a compromise.

On the left, Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, 67, known as the “Asian Pope Francis,” supports Roman Catholic teachings on contraception and abortion but advocates for a softer approach toward divorced and remarried Catholics and LGBTQ+ people. At one time Francis’ preferred successor, he would likely continue the late Pope’s mission. Italian Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, 69, Francis’ peace envoy for Ukraine, would be a similar choice, as would Cardinal José Tolentino Calaça de Mendonça, 59, of Portugal.

As for conservatives among the cardinals, Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besugu, 65, from the Democratic Republic of Congo, has been markedly vocal. His election would be a repudiation of Francis’ progressive papacy, as would the selection of Guinean Robert Sarah, 79, who is among the most orthodox of the electors. Ghanaian Cardinal Peter Turkson, 76, considered a “soft” conservative, would be another African whom conservatives might turn to.

The election of Hungarian Cardinal Péter Erdő, 72, a strong advocate of traditional Catholicism, would shift the Vatican to the right. A lawyer, he is considered a great intellect in the mold of Benedict XVI, who would seek to restore the rule of law to the Vatican.

Cardinal Raymond Burke, 76, a staunch traditionalist from Wisconsin, is perhaps the only viable American conservative candidate. He supports the Latin Mass and banning Catholic politicians who support abortion from taking communion. On the other side, American Cardinal Robert Prevost, 69, current head of the Vatican’s powerful department for bishops, would pick up where Francis left off.

Several others could emerge should the College of Cardinals desire a less well-known candidate. Due to Francis’ efforts to pack the conclave with his supporters, chances are good they will choose to preserve the status quo.